Colgate-Palmolive Stock Looks Unlikely To Continue Its Rally Next Month

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Colgate-Palmolive stock (NYSE: CL) is up a strong 13% in just one month (21 trading days), outperforming the S&P 500 which was up just a little under 5%. If you look at the change over the last five and ten days, too, the stock has returned 2.6% and 2.2%, beating the market on both occasions. Colgate had reported mixed Q3 ’21 earnings back in late October, but revenue came in strong at $4.41 billion, up from $4.15 billion in Q3 ’20. However, higher COGS and SG&A expenses saw operating income drop from $1.02 billion in Q3 ’20 to $967 million in Q3 ’21. This led to EPS falling from $0.81 to $0.75 over this period. The stock dropped nearly 3% in the month following the earnings announcement but has managed to bounce 13% since.

Now, is CL stock set to continue its rally or could we expect a pullback? We believe that there is a less than 10% chance of a rise in CL stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on CL Stock Chance of Rise. For additional details about CL historical returns and comparison to peers, see Colgate-Palmolive Stock Return.

Twenty-One Day: CL 13%, vs. S&P500 4.5%; Outperformed market

(0% likelihood event; 0% probability of rise over next 21 days)

  • CL stock rose 13% the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) rise of 4.5%
  • A change of 13% or more over twenty-one trading days is an almost 0% likelihood event, which has occurred 7 times out of 2515 in the last 10 years
  • Of these 7 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 0 occasions
  • This points to a 0% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

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Ten Day: CL 2.2%, vs. S&P500 1.2%; Outperformed market

(27% likelihood event; 53% probability of rise over next 10 days)

  • CL stock rose 2.2% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P500) rise of 1.2%
  • A change of 2.2% or more over ten trading days is a 27% likelihood event, which has occurred 680 times out of 2515 in the last 10 years
  • Of these 680 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 363 occasions
  • This points to a 53% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: CL 2.6%, vs. S&P500 1.8%; Outperformed market

(7% likelihood event; 53% probability of rise over next five days)

  • CL stock rose 2.6% over a five-day trading period ending 12/30/2021, compared to the broader market (S&P500) rise of 1.8%
  • A change of 2.6% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 7% likelihood event, which has occurred 183 times out of 2515 in the last ten years
  • Of these 183 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 97 occasions
  • This points to a 53% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

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