Dow Jones, S&P 500, Nasdaq rise as markets rein in Fed hike expectations

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The stock market is recovering some ground Wednesday after the washout in equities in the previous session.

The Nasdaq (COMP.IND) +0.2%, S&P (SP500) +0.3% and Dow (DJI) +0.6% are a little higher.

Among active post-earnings stocks, Microsoft is higher, while Alphabet and Boeing are lower. Tesla is rebounding some after yesterday’s big selloff.

Rates are falling again. The 10-year Treasury yield is down 3 basis points to 2.74% and the 2-year is down 7 basis points to 2.51%.

“In contrast to the last 3 weeks when US equities and Treasuries sold off side-by side, the risk-off tone has seen a significant rally back in sovereign bonds over the last couple of days, not least since markets are now assuming that central banks won’t move quite as aggressively as they were expecting at the end of last week,” Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid said. “For instance, fed funds futures have taken out -14.5bps of tightening this calendar year relative to Friday, even if they continue to expect +50bp hikes at the next 3 meetings, whilst they’ve also taken out -4.6bps from 2022 ECB tightening this week, too.”

There is an auction of $49B in 5-year notes later today.

“On the curve, the 5y note looks slightly rich against the 2s and 10s, whereas it looks cheap in asset swaps compared with the previous two cycles,” Societe Generale wrote. “The latest CFTC positioning data shows that dealers are the most short since December 2020 in 5y note futures. Overall, we are neutral on the 5y auction. Inversion of the 5s30s curve into the 5y sale and the $2bn cut in issuance could be helpful in the auction takedown.”

On the energy front, Russia said it will be cutting off gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria.

“Stopping gas supplies has less of an impact in springtime—and Poland has emphasized its stockpiles,” UBS chief economist Paul Donovan wrote. “Nonetheless, markets will likely view this as the start of a general weaponization of energy. Germany suggested an oil (not gas) embargo was manageable. There has been some anticipation of these events – weaponizing energy is practically a social media meme on #econtwit.”

See the stocks making the biggest moves this morning.