Retail sales and more debt-ceiling talks are the big spotlight for Tuesday, with stock futures indicating some wobbling ahead. There was also some disappointing China data that showed a slowing recovery.
Dipping a toe into how investors are feeling these days is the latest fund manger survey from Bank of America. Strategist Michael Hartnett and team reveal that investor sentiment deteriorated in May to “the most bearish of 2023” as investors lifted cash balances and got a little more negative on growth. They say that is good news — “positioning still contrarian [positive] for Wall Street.”
Worried managers are convinced that risk assets will remain “resilient so long as the [economic] landing is soft.” The below BofA chart shows nearly two-thirds of those surveyed — 63% — see a soft landing as the most likely outcome for the global economy.
And 61% are convinced the Fed has finished hiking, while 43% say perhaps not.
The next chart might explain why the market is taking that Alfred E. Neuman approach to debt-ceiling talks, baffling some on Wall Street, as 71% expect the ceiling will be raised by the so-called X date:
So where are the worries in this teflon market? A bank credit crunch and a global recession are at the top, followed by high inflation that keeps central banks hawkish.
if there is a credit event, most of those surveyed think it will start in the commercial real estate corner.
As for where this market is looking crowded — the past month saw a big rotation out of commodities linked to those growth worries — and into stocks. The emphasis was on tech names, with an overweight that’s the highest since December 2021, alongside a move into eurozone stocks. Investors are most long on growth versus value stocks since July 2020.
No doubt, some out there have been questioning whether technology stocks can keep up the pace — the Nasdaq Composite is still up a whopping 18% so far this year, while the S&P 500 is up just over 7%.
For those contrarians out there, the trades would be bullish positions on real estate investment trusts, banks and value stocks, and going the opposite way of the crowd by shorting bonds, technology and growth.
Read: Why stock-market bulls must beware of ‘bogus bear-market bottoms’
Stock futures are mostly flat ahead of retail sales data, with Treasury yields lower, oil prices edging up and gold and silver weaker. The dollar is flat. Turkish stocks and the lira continue to weaken on election jitters. China stocks took a hit after retail sales and industrial production grew, but short of Wall Street hopes and youth unemployment hit a record.
Read: A potential U.S. debt-ceiling suspension may present an upside risk for dollar, says BNP Paribas
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Starting this week’s retail earnings, Home Depot reported forecast-beating earnings, but cut its full-year sales forecast and shares are down 4%.
On that theme, April retail sales are due at 8:30 a.m., industrial production at 9:15 a.m. and business inventories and a home-builder confidence index will come at 10 a.m.
President Joe Biden will meet with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and other U.S. lawmakers to discuss the debt-ceiling crisis in a meeting scheduled for 3 p.m.
And we’ll hear from a bunch of Fed folks throughout the day: Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr will testify on Capitol Hill, then speeches from Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin and New York Fed President John Williams, as well a TV appearance by Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, who will later take part in a panel discussion with Atlanta Fed Pres. Raphael Bostic.
First-quarter holdings from hedge fund managers and other big investors rolled out late Monday. Capital One shares are up and Bank of New York Mellon is down after Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway said it bought the former and sold the latter. The conglomerate upped its HP stake, and sold off its RH and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing stakes. RH shares are down 4%.
Filings also showed Soros Fund Management sold its entire Tesla stake, as well as heavily trimming Rivian That was followed by a Twitter attack by the EV maker’s CEO Elon Musk who said George Soros “hates humanity.”
Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square took a new Alphabet position, and cut Chipotle Hilton Worldwide and Lowe’s stakes. David Teeper’s Appaloosa took new Tesla and Nvidia positions, and bought FedEx Amazon and other stocks. Bill Loeb’s Third Point took new Alibaba AMD and Alphabet stakes, and dumped Disney
Horizon Therapeutics is down 16% after a report said the FTC will block Amgen’s $27.8 billion buy of the biopharma. Amgen, whose shares were are up slightly, said it had no knowledge of any decision.
Vodafone said its performance has been disappointing and will cut 11,000 jobs over three years. Shares are down 6%.
Russia has launched a heavy attack on Ukraine capital Kyiv on Tuesday.
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