The tariff-driven market volatility has been rough on shares of Chinese electric vehicle (EV) maker Nio Inc. (NYSE: NIO), which last April fell to a multiyear low of $3.02. Shares rebounded afterward but eventually tumbled again. They are now up 6.3% year over year, after a 3.8% retreat in the past week. Abu Dhabi’s state-owned L’imad Holding Co. has consolidated its Nio stake to a substantial 17.9%, and the company opened its first distributor showroom in Hungary, despite potential EU tariffs.
Nio stock is trading 5.0% lower than six months ago, underperforming the S&P 500 in that time. Wall Street sentiment remains somewhat cautious, with a little over half of 26 analysts who cover the stock recommending buying shares. Their mean price target has ticked up to $6.67, which is over 45% higher than the current share price. Note that the high price target is up at $9.25.
There are some encouraging tailwinds for shareholders. The Chinese carmaker’s high-performance models, which feature a +600-mile range, have caught the eye of vehicle enthusiasts and investors, while addressing range anxiety issues by creating battery swap technology as a supplement to charging. Nio is a leading electric vehicle manufacturer in China and has been expanding its presence internationally.
From a stock performance standpoint, Nio has been a tale of two stories. When shares debuted on the New York Stock Exchange on Sept. 12, 2018, at $9.90, they struggled to build momentum. Not until the summer of 2020 did the stock begin to surge, gaining over 810% from June 26, 2020, to Feb. 9, 2021, when the stock hit its all-time high of $62.84. Shares have fallen considerably since then, but the long-term outlook remains strong.
24/7 Wall St. aims to provide readers with our assumptions about the stock’s prospects, what growth we see in Nio stock for the next several years, and what our best estimates are for Nio’s stock price each year through 2030.
Nio Stock Early-Stage Growth
The following table includes Nio’s revenues, operating income, and share price for its first few years as a public company.
| Year | Share Price (End of Year) |
Revenues (CNY)* | Operating Income* |
| 2018 | $5.39 | 4,951.2 | (9,595.6) |
| 2019 | $3.45 | 7,824.9 | (11,079.2) |
| 2020 | $40.00 | 16,257.9 | (4,607.6) |
| 2021 | $16.70 | 36,136.4 | (4,496.3) |
| 2022 | $7.87 | 49,268.6 | (15,640.7) |
| 2023 | $4.71 | 55,617.9 | (22,655.2) |
*Revenue and operating income in Billion CNY (1CNY=.14 USD)
Now let’s take a look at Rivian Automotive Inc. (NASDAQ: RIVN) in the first few years that it was a publicly traded company (here is Rivian’s stock price forecast):
| Year | Share Price (End of Year) |
Revenues | Operating Income |
| 2021 | $50.24 | $5.67 | ($0.71) |
| 2022 | $19.30 | $7.14 | ($2.27) |
| 2023 | $10.70 | $7.83 | ($3.19) |
| 2024 | $4.36 | $9.00 | ($2.99) |
Revenues and operating income in billions
Both firms have shown similar revenue growth, but Rivian’s annual operating losses have been greater than those of Nio.
Nio formerly contracted its manufacturing to Jianghuai Automobile Group, paying a fee for each vehicle produced in addition to fixed costs. The company has since acquired the factory from JAC. This agreement was beneficial for a young startup in a highly capital-intensive market. However, once scale is reached, the variable cost model has its downsides.
Three Key Drivers of Nio’s Performance
Product Portfolio Expansion and Growing Market Share
- New Model Launches: Similar to Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA), Nio began with a higher-end roadster and used the higher-end models to reinvest into more affordable, mass-market vehicles. Nio aims to push further into price-conscious markets while also adding options for its more premium customers.
- Add-On Services: With its battery swap technology, Nio plans to roll out an innovative battery-as-a-service solution for its customer base. The company had 3,676 swap stations by the end of 2025, at least 60 of them outside China, and plans to roll out at least 1,000 more stations in 2026.
Increased Vehicle Deliveries and Market Penetration
- Growing NEV Adoption: The market for new energy vehicles (NEVs) is on the rise in China. Nio achieved record-breaking delivery numbers in 2025, with the total output growing by approximately 104% over that period. This still only makes up about 2% of the Chinese NEV market and gives Nio plenty of roadway to gain market share for years to come.
- International Expansion: Nio’s strategy focuses on scaling its market presence beyond China, with a target to enter up to 40 global markets and regions by the end of 2026. While the company established its first overseas battery-swap station in Norway in 2021 and its dedicated assembly plant in Hungary in 2022, it is now accelerating growth through a national distributor model in regions like the UAE, Singapore, and Central Asia.
Advancements in Technology and Customer Experience
- Battery and Charging Solutions: Nio’s advancements in battery technology and charging solutions aim to alleviate range anxiety among consumers and help lower the overall cost of the vehicle by 15% to 30%.
- Focus on Younger Consumers: Nio’s leadership in EV technology will provide brand equity to younger generations of drivers who value enhanced technology packages. Onvo and Firefly, which offer more accessible price points while maintaining high-tech features like proprietary SkyOS integration, advanced autonomous driving, and the convenience of the Battery-as-a-Service (BaaS) model.
How Nio’s Next Few Years Could Play Out
| Year | Revenue* | Shares Outstanding | P/S Est. |
| 2025 | 97,052 | 2,050 mm | 1x |
| 2026 | 114,172 | 2,050 mm | 1x |
| 2027 | 134,643 | 2,050 mm | 1.5x |
| 2028 | 257,634 | 2,050 mm | 1.5x |
| 2029 | 176,533 | 2,050 mm | 1.5x |
| 2030 | 189,548 | 2,050 mm | 2x |
*Revenue in CNY millions
Compared to Rivian and Tesla, Nio’s price-to-sales valuation will be moderately discounted. While Nio is in solid financial standing and has a premium brand image, it remains uncertain how much competition the company will face both in China and as it expands overseas. The company is already spending a quarter of revenues on R&D and if Nio cannot capitalize on this spend, the stock price will be sluggish compared to North American EV manufacturers.
As mentioned, Wall Street analysts give Nio a one-year price target of $6.67, which is 45.3% more than the current share price. At 24/7 Wall St., we expect to see strong revenue growth in the coming year, with a price-to-sales multiple of 1x. That puts our 2026 year-end price target at $7.34, which would be a nearly 60% gain over today’s share price.
However, for 2030, we estimate Nio’s stock price to be $23.56 per share, or more than 413% higher than the current one.
Here is a look at our projections for the years in between:
| Year | Price Target | Upside Potential |
| 2026 | $7.34 | 59.9% |
| 2027 | $13.80 | 200.7% |
| 2028 | $24.01 | 423.1% |
| 2029 | $16.45 | 258.4% |
| 2030 | $23.56 | 413.3% |
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