Joby Aviation (JOBY) has spent the past months proving technical progress while wrestling with capital needs. The eVTOL maker recently priced a roughly $1.2 billion package of common stock and convertible notes to fund certification and production ramp plans, a move that sparked a sharp selloff.
That pullback presented a buying window for ARK Invest. Cathie Wood’s ARKQ (ARKQ) and ARKX (ARKK) funds picked up about 780,000 Joby shares on Jan. 29, a purchase worth roughly $8.7 to $10.4 million, as the firm doubled down on autonomous and urban-air themes.
Wood’s trade is a classic ARK playbook; add to high-conviction, long-horizon innovation bets on weakness. For investors, the key question is whether Joby’s certification timeline and funding plan justify the risk of further dilution and execution setbacks.
Based in Santa Cruz, Joby is building a five-seat, all-electric VTOL aircraft designed for quiet, point-to-point urban travel. The S4 prototype targets a 150-mile range and 200-mph cruise. Joby pairs aircraft development with service plans, leveraging partnerships with Uber (UBER), Toyota (TM), the Blade acquisition to seed operations, and plans to integrate booking through the Uber app. If Joby certifies and scales, it could be the first to market with a new urban-air mobility business model.
JOBY stock has been volatile lately. By spring 2025, it hit a 52-week high near $21, driven by excitement over its technology and progress. After the late-Jan offering, shares retreated; as of early February, they sit roughly 36% below that peak.
Nonetheless, JOBY is still up about 33% over the past 52 weeks but down 19% in 2026. The recent slide was tied directly to equity dilution: announcing the $1.2 billion raise sent the stock tumbling as investors worried about funding needs. Overall, the company outperformed broad markets last year, but its moves hinge on news flow, fundraising, test flights, and more than steady fundamentals.
Joby’s valuation is quite rich. At roughly a $10 billion market cap, JOBY trades at an EV/revenue multiple on the order of 200× or more, far above virtually any peer. That’s because its scant revenues, just $23 million last quarter, make the ratio enormous. Analysts note JOBY sits at a “lofty valuation;” J.P. Morgan explicitly calls it a “steep premium” to traditional aerospace peers.
Simply put, the market assumes success. Essentially every dollar of sales is valued in the hundreds, unlike mature aircraft makers that trade at single-digit multiples. In my view, this positions JOBY as richly priced unless it delivers on certification and scaling.
On Jan. 29, ARK’s trades showed Wood’s flagship funds scooped up 781,519 JOBY shares worth about $10.45 million across ARKQ and ARKX ETFs. TheStreet called it “classic ARK,” doubling down on a long-term theme during a short-term pullback.
Wood has said the “air-taxi industry is almost here,” and her team clearly believes Joby will lead it. In practice, this high-profile buying could buoy sentiment among momentum-driven traders in the short run.
However, it doesn’t change the fundamental runway ahead. J.P. Morgan and others warn that JOBY’s huge valuation already bakes in very optimistic assumptions about FAA certification and urban adoption. If Joby meets key milestones like on-time certification production ramp, Wood’s timing may prove prescient and attract follow-on interest. But if delays persist, critics note the stock has plenty of room to fall; it even appeared on a recent sell-side short list.
The latest quarterly report shows both progress and heavy spending. On the positive side, Joby generated $22.6 million in revenue for Q3 September ’25, essentially all from its Blade helicopter service and some defense/engineering contracts. By comparison, the same quarter last year was essentially zero revenue.
On the bottom line, net losses swelled, with EPS coming in at a loss of $0.48, well below the consensus loss of $0.19. R&D expense was $149 million, up 18% YoY, and SG&A was $45 million, reflecting the build-out of the team and Blade integration.
Despite the red ink, margins on those early sales were high: Blade trips carry a 50% gross margin, far above the 14% aerospace industry median, because helicopter service incurs mainly pilot and fuel costs.
Joby emphasized its strong balance sheet and progress. It ended the quarter with about $978 million in cash and equivalents, buoyed by a $576 million equity raise in October. Operating cash burn is roughly $357 million YTD, so the new cash nicely covered the deficit.
CEO JoeBen Bevirt highlighted operational milestones: “600+ flights in 2025,” the first point-to-point flight, Marina Monterey, plus a White House-backed eVTOL pilot program to introduce air taxis in communities. He noted Blade served 40,000 passengers this quarter, many at the Ryder Cup, and will be bookable via the Uber app, underscoring synergies. Bevirt sounded optimistic, saying the technical and regulatory progress is “unprecedented.”
Beyond the quarter, Joby has kept up a busy pace. It bought a second 700,000-sq-ft factory in Dayton, Ohio, to boost production capacity and installed advanced eVTOL simulators at its Marina, California, training center. The company has logged more than 600 test flights in 2025, demonstrated its Superpilot™ autonomous system, and adopted Nvidia’s (NVDA) IGX Thor for onboard processing. Blade carried roughly 40,000 passengers last quarter and produced unusually high gross margins for early-stage transport services.
Wall Street remains mixed. As of now, the analyst consensus is “Hold” with a median price target of around $12.14.
Analysts repeatedly stress that execution is key: one noted that Wood’s buying and the excitement suggest a 20%-25% potential rally if milestones are hit but warned any slip could send JOBY far lower.
So, in my opinion, ARK’s purchases may give the stock a short-term lift, but most pros are watching the fundamentals: will Joby certify and scale in time with its cash? If so, ARK’s call might be vindicated; if not, investors who chase momentum may regret it. All data cited above are from company releases and financial news reports, which readers should consult for the full context.
On the date of publication, Nauman Khan did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com