How the S&P 500’s return over the next decade could average just 1% a year

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S&P Dow Jones Indices estimates that, based on results from the nearly complete first-quarter earnings season, the S&P 500’s SPX operating profit margin for the first quarter of 2024 was 11.76%. The margin for the trailing four quarters is 11.44%, higher than for calendar 2023 and 2022.