CHONGQING, CHINA – SEPTEMBER 28: In this photo illustration, a smartphone displays the logo of Delta Air Lines, Inc. (NYSE: DAL), the American legacy carrier and one of the world’s largest airlines, with its latest stock market chart shown in the background on September 28, 2025 in Chongqing, China. (Photo illustration by Cheng Xin/Getty Images)
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Delta Air Lines (NYSE: DAL) is set to announce its earnings on Thursday, October 9, 2025.
For traders focused on specific events, examining the stock’s historical response to earnings can yield a crucial advantage, regardless of how the actual results compare to consensus predictions. Traders usually leverage historical trends in two key ways:
- Pre-Earnings: Position themselves based on the historical likelihood of movement prior to the earnings announcement.
- Post-Earnings: Assess the connection between immediate and medium-term returns after the announcement and adjust their positions accordingly.
Historically, DAL stock has demonstrated a significant negative tendency following earnings reports. In the past five years, the stock has recorded a negative one-day return in 65% of cases. The median one-day drop has been ?2.7%, while the largest one-day decrease has been ?9.0%.
Consensus predictions estimate earnings at $1.52 per share with total sales of $15.94 billion. This is an increase from last year’s quarterly earnings of $1.50 per share on revenues of $15.68 billion.
From a fundamental perspective, Delta Air Lines currently has a market capitalization of $37 billion. The company reported $62 billion in revenue over the past twelve months, achieving robust operational profitability with $5.8 billion in operating profit and $4.5 billion in net income.
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Delta Air Lines’ Historical Chances for Positive Post-Earnings Returns
Some insights on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded in the last five years, with 7 positive and 13 negative one-day (1D) returns noted. In summary, positive 1D returns were observed approximately 35% of the time.
- However, this percentage drops to 33% if we review data from the past 3 years instead of 5.
- The median of the 7 positive returns is 6.2%, while the median of the 13 negative returns is -2.7%
Additional data for the observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are collated along with the statistics in the table below.
DAL 1D, 5D, and 21D Post Earnings Returns
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Relationship Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively lower-risk strategy (though not effective if the correlation is weak) is to comprehend the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns after earnings, identify a pair with the highest correlation, and implement the suitable trade. For instance, if 1D and 5D demonstrate the highest correlation, a trader might take a “long” position for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Below is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D signifies the relationship between 1D post-earnings returns and the subsequent 5D returns.
DAL Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
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