Invest 95L now Tropical Storm Jerry. See spaghetti models. Fort Myers, Cape Coral in path?

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Tropical Storm Jerry formed Tuesday morning, Oct. 6, according to the 11 a.m. advisory from the National Hurricane Center.

Jerry, formerly Invest 95L, is the 10th named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season and may become a hurricane in the next day or two, NHC forecasters said.

According to the NHC, Jerry is expected to pass near the northern Leeward Islands Thursday night and Friday, and bring with it a risk of wind, surf, and rainfall impacts. Watches may be required for a portion of that area later today or tonight.

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Florida is not currently expected to be impacted by Tropical Storm Jerry. However, residents should continue monitoring the progress of the storm and stay prepared.

In the Fort Myers area, forecasts call for a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms daily through Friday, with temperatures in the mid to high 80s.

Tropical Storm Jerry NHC cone

Special note on the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.

Tropical Storm Jerry spaghetti models. See expected path

Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.

➤ Track Tropical Storm Jerry

Current weather watches and warnings issued in Fort Myers, Cape Coral, Lee County, Florida

No tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings associated with Tropical Storm Jerry have been issued for Florida or the U.S.

Residents in the northern Leeward Islands were advised to watch Tropical Storm Jerry. There is a risk of wind, surf, and rainfall impacts in the area.

Watches may be required for a portion of that area later today, Oct. 7, or tonight.

Fort Myers storm tracker: How strong is Tropical Storm Jerry and where is it going?

At 11 a.m., the center of the newly formed Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 11.5 North, longitude 44.6 West.

Jerry is moving toward the west near 24 mph. A decrease in forward speed and a turn to the west-northwest is expected during the next couple of days.

On the forecast track, the core of the system is expected to be near or to the north of the northern Leeward Islands late Thursday and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph, with higher gusts.

Steady strengthening is forecast, and Jerry is expected to become a hurricane in a day or two.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb.

Key messages from the National Hurricane Center: What you need to know about Tropical Storm Jerry

Invest 95L strengthened enough to be designated as Tropical Storm Jerry by 11 a.m. Oct. 7.
Jerry is moving quickly to the west, with a turn to the west-northwest expected during the next couple of days.
Jerry is forecast to pass near or just north of the northern Leeward Islands Thursday night and Friday.
Residents in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of the storm as there is a risk of wind, surf, and rainfall impacts. Watches may be required for a portion of that area later today or tonight.
The NHC intensity forecast shows the system becoming a hurricane in a day or two before its closest approach to the northern Leeward Islands.
After the system passes by the islands, the models diverge significantly with some solutions showing Jerry moving into stronger shear while others keep it in a favorable upper-level wind pattern.

Current forecast: Where is Tropical Storm Jerry going and how strong could it get?

As of 11 a.m.: 45 mph
12 hours: 50 mph
24 hours: 65 mph
36 hours: 75 mph
48 hours: 85 mph
60 hours: 90 mph
72 hours: 90 mph
96 hours: 90 mph
120 hours: 90 mph

What impact could Tropical Storm Jerry have and what areas could be affected?

Residents in the northern Leeward Islands were advised to watch Tropical Storm Jerry. There is a risk of wind, surf, and rainfall impacts in the area.

Watches may be required for a portion of that area later today, Oct. 7, or tonight.

Surf: Swells generated by Jerry are expected to reach the Leeward Islands on Thursday, Oct. 9. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Weather radar for Fort Myers, Cape Coral, Lee County, Florida

Excessive rainfall forecast across Fort Myers, Cape Coral, Lee County, Florida

Interactive map: What tropical storms, hurricanes have impacted your area in the past?

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This article originally appeared on Fort Myers News-Press: Tropical Storm Jerry path, spaghetti models. Fort Myers, FL impact?