Invest 95L to form tropical depression later Tuesday. Is it coming to Florida?

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Editor’s note: This story was updated with information from the latest NHC tropical weather outlook.

Invest 95L became Tropical Storm Jerry, the Atlantic’s 10th named storm, on Tuesday morning, according to the National Hurricane Center’s latest tropical weather outlook.

Tropical Storm Jerry is moving west around 24 mph and is expected to reach the northern Leeward Islands by late Thursday and Friday, Oct. 9-10.

“The tropical wave moving through the Atlantic main development region is expected to develop into Tropical Storm Jerry by midweek,” AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said.

Tropical Storm Jerry spaghetti models show the system’s path following Hurricanes Erin and Humberto. A track westward into the Caribbean Sea isn’t entirely out of the question, but forecasters say it is the “least likely” scenario.

“Beyond the Caribbean, a dip in the jet stream along the east coast of the United States is expected to help guide this storm to the north and then curve it out to sea,” DaSilva said. Future Jerry is expected to strengthen into the basin’s fifth hurricane of the season in the process.

Tropical Storm Jerry stormtracker

At 10 a.m. CT, the center of the newly formed Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 11.5 North, longitude 44.6 West.

Jerry is moving toward the west near 24 mph (39 km/h). A decrease in forward speed and a turn to the west-northwest is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the core of the system is expected to be near or to the north of the northern Leeward Islands late Thursday and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast, and Jerry is expected to become a hurricane in a day or two.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

Is Tropical Storm Jerry coming to Florida?

As of right now, there is little indication that Tropical Storm Jerry is headed toward Florida.

Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Jerry

Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts. 

➤ Track Tropical Storm Jerry

New tropical system crops up in the Caribbean, Gulf

The National Hurricane Center began monitoring a second tropical system that appeared in the northwestern Caribbean and southwestern Gulf on Monday afternoon.

The trough of low pressure is located over the Yucatan Peninsula where it’s producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The NHC expects it to emerge over the Bay of Campeche later on Tuesday.

Some slow development of this system is possible over the Bay of Campeche around the middle of the week. Regardless of development, areas of heavy rain and gusty winds are likely across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, and southern Mexico during the next few days.

The budding system has just a 10% chance of forming over the next seven days.

When is the Atlantic hurricane season?

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.

Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said.

The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories.

When is the peak of hurricane season?

The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.

This article originally appeared on Pensacola News Journal: Jerry becomes Atlantic’s 10th named storm. Florida impacts?