A major fiscal watchdog says Social Security benefit checks could shrink in less than a decade — and the recently signed One Big Beautiful Bill may be partly to blame.
The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), a nonpartisan advocacy group, has projected that recent changes in tax law could accelerate the depletion of the Social Security trust fund. Without congressional action, benefit cuts could begin as early as 2033, affecting over 60 million retirees.
What changed with the new law?
President Donald Trump signed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act into law on July 4, 2025, describing it as a financial win for seniors. However, one provision in the legislation is raising alarms: a significant reduction in revenue from the taxation of Social Security benefits.
According to CRFB:
- The bill lowers income tax revenue collected from Social Security benefits.
- This shift speeds up the insolvency timeline, now predicted for end of 2032.
- The trust fund could no longer cover full benefits, triggering automatic reductions in payments.
What kind of cuts are expected?
Once the trust fund reserves are exhausted, Social Security would rely solely on payroll tax revenues. While that income stream is continuous, it’s not enough to fully fund promised benefits.
CRFB estimates:
- A dual-earning couple retiring in 2033 could face an $18,100 annual cut.
- The gap between income and benefits would continue growing in subsequent years.
- Cuts could affect retirees, survivors, and disabled beneficiaries alike.
Why is this happening?
Social Security has long faced structural financial challenges:
- Aging population: Baby Boomers are retiring in large numbers.
- Lower birth rates: Fewer workers are entering the workforce to pay into the system.
- Rising costs: In 2024, Social Security accounted for 23% of all federal spending, paying out $1.5 trillion in benefits.
By reducing revenue without restructuring the program, the CRFB warns the new law may worsen long-term solvency issues.
Will Social Security checks ever stop?
Not entirely. Even if the trust fund runs dry, the system will continue to collect payroll taxes from current workers. These funds will allow Social Security to continue paying partial benefits.
But unless lawmakers act:
- Retirees could see 20–25% reductions starting in 2033.
- That gap could widen over time as benefit obligations increase faster than revenues.
What are experts saying?
“Policymakers pledging not to touch Social Security are implicitly endorsing these deep benefit cuts for 62 million retirees,” the CRFB said.
“It’s time to pursue real trust fund solutions.”
Howard Gleckman, a senior fellow at the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center, also warned that the SSA and political leaders are creating misleading expectations.
“Despite what’s being claimed, the law didn’t eliminate Social Security taxes or guarantee full benefits,” Gleckman said.
What happens next?
Without changes, Social Security is on track to reduce payments across the board by 2033. Possible solutions on the table include:
- Raising payroll taxes
- Increasing the retirement age
- Reducing benefits for higher-income earners
- Adjusting cost-of-living increases
So far, no bipartisan consensus has emerged.