Amid Democratic anger over Saturday’s killing of Alex Pretti by a federal immigration agent, a major spending package could well fail to pass the Senate this week – sparking another U.S. government shutdown.
If the funding package stalls, the Social Security Administration (SSA) is among the federal agencies in line to be impacted; however, recipients of SSA benefits can expect their monthly payments to continue regardless.
What’s the problem with the U.S. spending package?
Having already passed the House of Representatives, a series of appropriations bills have been bundled together for consideration by the Senate this week. The sticking point is the inclusion of a bill providing funding for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), the government agency responsible for the U.S.’s border forces.
Senate Democrats have said they will not approve the DHS spending, after Pretti became the second person this month to be fatally shot by a federal immigration officer in Minneapolis. The 37-year-old ICU nurse’s death came 17 days after Renée Good, a 37-year-old poet, was killed by a border agent.
“Senate Democrats will not provide the votes”
In a post on X this weekend, the Senate’s Democratic minority leader, Chuck Schumer, said: “What’s happening in Minnesota is appalling – and unacceptable in any American city.
“Democrats sought common sense reforms in the Department of Homeland Security spending bill, but because of Republicans’ refusal to stand up to President Trump, the DHS bill is woefully inadequate to rein in the abuses of ICE [Immigration and Customs Enforcement]. I will vote no.
“Senate Democrats will not provide the votes to proceed to the appropriations bill if the DHS funding bill is included.”
What’s happening in Minnesota is appalling—and unacceptable in any American city. Democrats sought common sense reforms in the Department of Homeland Security spending bill, but because of Republicans’ refusal to stand up to President Trump, the DHS bill is woefully inadequate to…
— Chuck Schumer (@SenSchumer) January 24, 2026
Why are Dem votes needed?
Although Republicans have a 53-47 majority in the Senate, this is not enough for GOP senators to push through legislation without Democratic support. Bills need the backing of at least 60 senators, as three-fifths of the upper chamber must agree to end the debate phase that takes place before legislation is put to a vote. If it does not meet this 60-vote threshold, a bill’s progress stalls.
If the spending package fails to clear the Senate by Friday, Jan. 30, the federal government will face its second shutdown under Republican Donald Trump’s second presidency. Between October 1 and November 12, the American federal government endured a 43-day shutdown – the longest in U.S. history.
What are the odds of a new shutdown?
On the prediction marks, expectations of another shutdown are now very high. As of noon ET on Monday, speculators on Polymarket offered an 81% chance of a stoppage. Kalshi, meanwhile, showed a 77.4% possibility.
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Social Security benefits would carry on
Aside from the DHS, the appropriations package at the heart of the current shutdown threat includes money for a raft of other agencies, including the SSA.
However, as was also the case during last fall’s shutdown, this would not have any impact on the actual payment of the benefits distributed by the SSA: be it retirement, disability or survivor pay, or the agency’s Supplemental Security Income program (SSI).
This is because the SSA’s benefits are paid for by what’s referred to as mandatory funding – money that isn’t dependent on periodic appropriations by Congress. In the package that’s currently with the Senate, funds earmarked for the SSA are for other purposes, such as reducing waiting times for appointments at the agency’s offices.
As is noted by Andy Markowitz and Deirdre Shesgreen, finance experts at the U.S. seniors’ association AARP: “[Benefits] have a dedicated, permanent funding source (primarily, the payroll taxes most of us pay on our work income) and are unaffected by the federal appropriations process.”
In its most recent shutdown contingency plan, published in September last year, the agency made plain its commitment to uninterrupted benefits, pledging to “continue activities critical to […] ensure accurate and timely payment“.
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