The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and the NASDAQ Composite indices seem to lose their momentum. The indices failed to get a strong follow-through rise after moving up initially last week. NASDAQ Composite lost all the gains and closed the week in red. Dow Jones gave away some of the gains and managed to close the week higher by 0.34 per cent. The S&P 500 index ended the week on a flat note.
The benchmark indices have crucial support. A fall below it will indicate a trend reversal and will open the doors for more fall. As such the price action this week is going to be very crucial for the US equities.
Dow Jones (47,147.48)
Failure to sustain the rise above 48,000 last week indicates lack of strong fresh buying in the market. The Dow Jones can dip to test the crucial support level of 46,500 this week. A break below 46,500 will indicate a top in place. Such a break can drag the Dow down to 45,600 initially. A further break below 45,600 can then take the index down to 45,000-44,800 in the coming weeks.
The index has to sustain above 46,500 and rise past 47,300 to get a breather. That will keep the chances of getting a decisive break above 48,000 and target 49,200 on the upside.
S&P 500 (6,734.10)
The reversal from the intraweek high of 6,869.91 indicates the presence of sellers at higher levels. On the weekly chart, a sideways range of 6,600-6,900 is visible. But, on the daily chart, the lower highs leave the bias negative. So, the price action this week is going to be very crucial.
A break below 6,600 will give an indication of a trend reversal. It can then take the S&P 500 index down to 6,530-6,500. That will then bring in the danger of seeing 6,350-6,300 on the downside.
If the index manages to sustain above 6,600, the sideways range can continue to remain intact. A decisive break above 6,900 will keep the chance of seeing a fresh rally to 7,100-7,200.
NASDAQ Composite (22,900.59)
The crucial support level of 22,500 was tested last week. The NASDAQ Composite Index touched a low of 22,436.79 and then has risen back well. But a strong follow-through rise from here and a break above 23,400 must be seen. Only then the index can rise back to 23,700-24,000 levels again.
Failure to rise past 23,400 from here can keep the index vulnerable to break 22,500 and fall to 22,000-21,900 in the coming weeks. Such a fall will confirm the bearish trend reversal. NASDAQ Composite index can then fall to 21,000-20,500 eventually thereafter.
Dollar Outlook
The dollar index (99.30) fell to test the support at 99 as expected. It is also holding well above it in line with our expectation. Resistance is around 99.80. A rise above it will increase the chances of getting a sustained break above 100 this time. Such a break can take the dollar index up to 100.80 and 101.20 in the coming weeks.
Failure to rise past 99.80 can keep the index under pressure to break the support at 99. If that happens, a test of 98.60-98.50 can be seen first. Thereafter the index can reverse higher towards 99.50-99.80 again.
Treasury Yields
The US 10Yr Treasury Yield (4.15 per cent) is continuing to get strong support from the 4.5-4.4 per cent region. For now, the yield is moving sideways between 4.04 and 4.16 per cent. The bias is bullish to break 4.16 per cent initially and then get a subsequent rise past 4.20 per cent in the coming days. That in turn will boost the bullish momentum. In that case, the US 10Yr Treasury yield can see a rise to 4.28-4.3 per cent or even 4.35 per cent going forward.
The 10Yr Yield has to break 4.04 per cent decisively and then fall below 4 per cent in order to come under pressure. Only then the downside will be open to see 3.9-3.85 per cent.
Published on November 15, 2025