Solid consumer spending keeps growth resilient, but rising producer inflation complicates Fed rate-cut outlook
U.S. retail sales grew 0.6 per cent month-on-month in November, beating market expectations and signalling solid consumer demand, data from the U.S. Census Bureau showed on Wednesday.
The retail sales report tracks how much consumers are spending and serves as a key gauge of demand—two of the most important drivers of the U.S. economy. The data captures about one-third of total U.S. consumer spending, covering expenditure on physical goods, while spending on services such as travel, healthcare, and entertainment is not included.
The report was delayed due to the historic US government shutdown. At the same time, U.S. producer inflation picked up in November. The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.2 per cent month-on-month and 3 per cent year-on-year, data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed on Wednesday. This indicates that cost pressures in the U.S. economy are re-accelerating, particularly at the producer level.
Meanwhile, the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ consumer inflation data released on Tuesday showed that headline inflation rose 2.6 per cent year-on-year in December, unchanged from November. On a monthly basis, prices increased 0.3 per cent.
Core inflation—which excludes volatile food and energy prices and is seen as a measure of underlying price pressures—rose 0.2 per cent from November, bringing the annual core inflation rate to 2.7 per cent in December.
While the latest inflation data does not significantly add to concerns for the U.S. Federal Reserve, it also does not provide enough evidence of cooling to justify rapid monetary easing.
With the Fed set to meet later this month, policymakers are expected to remain cautious on the timing and pace of potential rate cuts.
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Rajat Mishra leads business news coverage at Firstpost.com. An award-winning business journalist with over seven years of experience, he has worked across some of India’s leading newsrooms. His reporting spans the macroeconomy, financial markets, and India Inc., with a keen focus on decoding complex data and trends for readers.
An alumnus of the AJK Mass Communication Research Centre, Jamia Millia Islamia, Rajat can be followed on X at @RajatMishra9518. For story ideas and pitches, he can be reached at Rajat.Mishra@nw18.com. When not tracking numbers and policy moves, he enjoys wandering the Himalayas and exploring society beyond spreadsheets.
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