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The Carlyle Group announced third-quarter 2025 results, reporting revenue of US$332.7 million and net income of US$0.9 million, both down sharply from the same period last year, and reaffirmed a quarterly dividend of US$0.35 per share to be paid in November.
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Despite the continued dividend, the company’s core financial performance saw substantial year-over-year declines in both revenue and net income, highlighting pressures on earnings.
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We’ll examine how this marked decrease in quarterly revenue and profit may affect the firm’s long-term investment narrative and growth outlook.
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To be a Carlyle Group shareholder, you typically need faith in its ability to drive recurring fee revenues from expanded fundraising, especially as investor demand for private market products grows. The steep drop in third-quarter revenues and profits amplifies short-term uncertainty about fee income momentum, potentially putting Carlyle’s reliance on fundraising under the spotlight, though the continued dividend signals no immediate shift in capital policy. The main risk is that protracted earnings pressure could dampen confidence in Carlyle’s longer-term AUM growth and profitability.
Among recent announcements, the reaffirmation of Carlyle’s US$0.35 per share quarterly dividend stands out, as it underscores management’s focus on providing near-term shareholder returns even as core profits face headwinds. Consistent dividends may appeal to income-focused investors, but the ability to maintain payouts over time will depend on restoring stable earnings growth amidst fee and fundraising challenges.
In contrast, investors should also be aware of how a shift in fundraising momentum could quickly alter Carlyle’s future earnings power and…
Read the full narrative on Carlyle Group (it’s free!)
Carlyle Group’s narrative projects $5.1 billion revenue and $1.7 billion earnings by 2028. This requires a 2.6% annual revenue decline and a $0.4 billion increase in earnings from $1.3 billion.
Uncover how Carlyle Group’s forecasts yield a $69.25 fair value, a 33% upside to its current price.
Private fair value targets for Carlyle range from US$45.83 to US$69.25, based on three distinct estimates shared within the Simply Wall St Community. While opinions differ widely, remember that fundraising risks could make future earnings less predictable, shaping outlooks across these viewpoints.
Explore 3 other fair value estimates on Carlyle Group – why the stock might be worth as much as 33% more than the current price!
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include CG.
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