Will the shutdown stall your Social Security COLA? It depends on one key report

If you’re on Social Security, here’s the good news: Your benefits will still arrive on time, even if the federal government is shut down. That’s because Social Security is considered mandatory spending — meaning it’s funded automatically each year, no matter what happens in Congress.

But there’s a wrinkle: The 2026 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) announcement might be delayed. That’s because the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which releases the inflation data used to calculate the COLA, is caught up in the shutdown.

And without that final piece of data — the September CPI-W report — the Social Security Administration can’t finalize your raise for next year.

Here’s what’s happening, what services are affected and what to expect next.

Your monthly payments are safe

Even with the government shut down, you’ll still get your Social Security payment as scheduled. That’s because Social Security operates with permanent funding that doesn’t rely on the annual federal budget process.

In budgeting lingo, Social Security is what’s called “mandatory spending.” That’s different from “discretionary spending,” which includes things like national parks and many federal employees’ salaries — and is the part that often gets held up during a shutdown.

In past shutdowns — including the current one that began last week on October 1 — the Social Security Administration has remained open and continued to process payments. You may experience longer wait times for customer service, or limited access to certain administrative services, like updating or correcting earnings records.

But benefits will continue without interruption, including:

• Retirement benefits

• Disability (SSDI)

• Survivors benefits

• Supplemental Security Income (SSI)

So if you’ve worried about your check not showing up in your bank account next month, you can breathe easy.

🔍 Read more: ‘Will Social Security run out of money?’ 5 common fears vs. facts

But you might wait longer to hear about your raise

Even though your payments are safe, the announcement about how much your 2026 raise will be could get pushed back — all because of a single missing data point.

The Social Security Administration calculates the annual COLA each fall using inflation data from the third quarter. To do that, they rely on the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), which looks at price changes for everyday goods and services in July, August, and September.

Here’s the issue: The September CPI-W report is scheduled for release by the BLS on October 15. But since the BLS is part of the government shutdown, that release could be delayed.

That’s why the SSA may not be able to announce the COLA in October, which is the typical timeline — they simply don’t have the final data yet.

📌 Important note: The COLA takes effect in January 2026 regardless. So any delay affects when you hear the news, not when you get your raise.

🔍 Read more: COLA countdown: Social Security benefits estimated to rise 2.7% in 2026

This has happened before (and benefits came through)

If you’re feeling deja vu, it’s because this has happened before. The government shutdown in October 2013 caused a nearly identical delay in the COLA announcement.

Here’s what happened then:

• The shutdown lasted 16 days — from September 30 to October 17, 2013.

• The September inflation report was delayed to October 30.

• The official COLA announcement was pushed back two weeks to October 30.

• But the 1.5% increase still took effect as scheduled in January 2014.

In short, the delay didn’t change the amount of the increase, and it didn’t disrupt anyone’s Social Security payments.

This time around, experts expect a similar outcome. The data is already being collected, even if it’s not processed and released yet. So while the timing of the announcement might shift, any COLA increases will still take effect in January 2026 — just as it has been determined and applied every year since 1975.

🔍 Read more: Government shuts down: 5 money mistakes experts say to avoid

What parts of Social Security are running during the shutdown?

As previously stated, your Social Security benefits are not in danger.

That’s because Social Security is funded through payroll taxes and has its own trust fund. It doesn’t rely on annual budget approvals from Congress.

That said, the SSA scales back staffing and services during a shutdown, which means:

• Longer wait times at local offices

• Delays processing new benefit applications

• Harder-to-reach phone support

• Slower turnaround for replacement cards and services

🔍 Read more: Social Security’s blind spot: 9 hidden costs that catch retirees off guard

The takeaway: Your 2026 Social Security raise is still coming

The government shutdown might delay the announcement of your Social Security COLA — but it shouldn’t delay the actual increase. As long as the CPI-W data is eventually released, your 2026 raise will still show up in January, right on schedule. It’s frustrating, but hold tight.

Other stories you might like

About the writer

Cassidy Horton is a finance writer who specializes in banking, insurance, lending and paying down debt. Her expertise has been featured in NerdWallet, Forbes, MarketWatch, CNN, USA Today, Money, The Balance and Consumer Affairs, among other top financial publications. Cassidy first became interested in personal finance after paying off $18,000 in debt in 10 months of graduation with an MBA. Today, she’s committed to empowering people to stand up and take charge of their financial futures.

Article edited by Kelly Suzan Waggoner

📩 Have thoughts or comments about this story — or ideas on topics you’d like us to cover? Reach out to our team at finance.editors@aol.com.